IF articles

The paper presents a dynamic model of demand

modal split in a multimodal freight transport system.

It has been devised in order to study the evolution of freight

transport through the Swiss Alps, which in the last decades

has undergone profound technological transformations, as

well as marked modifications in the demand split among

wagonload rail, road haulage and intermodal transport.

The model determines the dynamic characteristics of the

transport system by analyzing a sequence of times, for each

of which the demand using the various transport modes is

known. Then a map is defined and its parameters estimated,

which gives the evolution over time of the demand for

each transport mode. By using the sequence of the yearly

transport demand values of the three modes through the

Swiss Alps from 1984 to 2011, the model enables determining

the evolution of transport costs of each mode during

this time period and forecasting the future evolution of the

modal split, under the hypothesis that the dynamic characteristics

of the system remain substantially unchanged.